Quantum Forest logs are written by Luis A. Apiolaza in Christchurch, New Zealand.
« previous post · next post »
Last week we were bombarded by the media about the suppossed effect of plantation forestry on Oyster growers in Georges Bay, Tasmania. Below I put together a quick comment, which was published with minor changes in Tasmanian Times:
FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) is an acronym often used in the war between Open and Closed Source Software advocates. It is also a very descriptive term for some of the letters concerning the ‘Oyster affair’.
There were two reports on Georges Bay’s problem released very close to each other: the Scammell report and the Percival report. The former linked oyster death and the plagues of Egypt to forestry, although did not have any evidence for it. The latter identifies a large list of factors (see their causal web and risk factors) that may have an effect, and concludes that there is no convincing evidence for any of them: oyster mortality could well be a combination of many causes.
Different people will prefer one report to another for a variety of reasons. In my case, I find the Percival report a much more balanced and scientific approach. I think that the Scammell report links a series of events starting with a clear agenda and forcing them into an inconsistent conclusion with a series of ‘appear’ (there are eight of them in the synopsis). Other people will prefer Scammell’s report because they do not trust DPIWE, or because it fits with a negative image for forestry, or because provides a single, simple cause for the problems of a complex world. The media will prefer whatever sells more papers; in this case Scammell wins.
Then we have the flood of letters claiming that the end is near, and that we should stop doing anything that carries a risk attached; this is often stated as the precautionary principle. Thus, forget pesticides—including that handy spray at home; mobile phones—remember, brain tumours; your car—pollution, greenhouse gasses and who knows what; electricity and computers—electromagnetic radiation; vaccines—autism; etc. Let’s go back to simple and safe times. We could still be arguing if we should use fires and come down the trees but, hey, the world would be a safer place.
Of course we also may stop, think and weigh the risks. We may compare several bays and set up a proper study. We may even calculate the maximum potential dose of pesticides that could drift to the water and reach the oysters in Georges Bay. But that may sound like too much work to the proponents of FUD. It may even provide answers that do not fit their original hypothesis. So yes, let’s keep it simple and blame the evident cause. Let’s burn all the witches, because they are obviously the source of everything that is wrong.
This article is followed by a second, and hopefully final, commentary on oysters.
אאא